淺談小概率事件原理及其應用

摘  要
小概率事件原理是概率論與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計中的1個簡單、基本而頗有實用意義的原理，在我們的日常生活中有著很廣泛的應用。
首先我們對小概率事件（又稱極值事件）做1個粗略的描述：小概率事件，是指發(fā)生的可能性（或概率）較小的事件。1般認為不大可能發(fā)生的事件，但生活中還是往往有發(fā)生的。小概率事件1旦發(fā)生可能對生活、某些行業(yè)尤其是保險與金融業(yè)（或其公司）產(chǎn)生巨大的（有時是毀滅性的）沖擊。
小概率事件原理在我們?nèi)粘Ｉ�活和工作中有著很廣泛的應用。本文將通過對小概率原理及其推斷方法的分析、論證，結(jié)合在1些領域中的應用實例，證明小概率事件原理的應用價值。

關鍵詞： 概率論；小概率事件；應用價值         

Abstract
Minor probability event theory is a basic simple and practical theory in Probability and Statistics. It is widely applied in our daily life.
Firstly, we have a rough description of minor probability event: An event which would happen with minor probability or which is unlikely to happen .An event which is unlikely to happen but actually usually happen in our daily life. Although the events with minor probability are unlikely to happen, their occasional happening has significant or sometimes deadly influence on our life and all social circles, especially on insurance and finance or their companies.
The theory of minor probability event has profound significance in our daily life and work. In this thesis, we demonstrate the practical value of the minor probability event theory through its analysis and inferring method combining the applied events in some fields.

Keywords: probability; minor probability event; practical value

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